Undecided Latino Voters Anxious About the Economy and Skeptical of Both Parties, New UnidosUS Analysis Finds

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Nearly 4 in 10 Hispanic voters are now part of the “moveable middle” — a bloc big enough to decide who controls Congress, and still up for grabs heading into November.  

WASHINGTON — Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, a new UnidosUS analysis released today identifies a “moveable middle” within the Hispanic electorate – voters who are undecided, independent or crossed party lines in 2024. The analysis finds this group is anxious about the economy, skeptical of both parties and is less likely to hear from candidates than Hispanic voters overall. This group makes up roughly 38% of the Hispanic electorate, which has a significant presence in 12 of the 37 competitive U.S. House districts that will decide control of Congress. The analysis draws on data from the UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: The Road to the 2026 Midterms.  

“This large and critically important middle group of Hispanic voters isn’t disengaged, it’s skeptical,” said Unidos President and CEO Janet Murguía. “These voters are deeply worried about their economic stability. So they’re looking to see whether either party is listening and ready to deliver for working families. That’s an opening for whoever takes their issues seriously, and a real risk for whoever doesn’t.” 

“The message from Latino voters continues to be resoundingly clear: lower costs, strengthen wages. And swayable Hispanic voters are putting an exclamation point on it. They are skeptical, and the fact that many don’t see a difference between the parties when it comes to delivering for working families should set off alarm bells for candidates who want their support. Another reminder not to take these voters for granted or parachute in at the last minute,” said Clarissa Martinez De Castro, Vice President of the UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative.

Economic Concerns Drive This Group 

Pocketbook issues are the dominant concerns for these voters, nearly identical to the broader Hispanic electorate—cost of living (60%), jobs and wages (40%), healthcare costs (37%), housing costs (27%) and immigration reform (21%) round out their top issues in nearly the same order as Hispanic voters overall. But they are notably more pessimistic than other Latino voters: just 15% expect to be better off financially next year, compared with 21% overall, and 52% expect Trump’s economic policies to leave them worse off. 

Immigration is the top 5th priority, and on this specifically, their top priority, like for Hispanics as a whole, remains legalization for the long-residing undocumented population, not enforcement.

Trump’s Support Keeps Slipping, Democrats Have Work to Do 

Among self-identified Trump voters in this group, 46% would not support him if they had to do it over again, and that number climbs to 57% among those who crossed party lines for him in 2024. The comparable figure for the overall Hispanic electorate is 25%. Across the movable middle as a whole, Trump’s approval sits at just 24%, six points below his 30% approval among Hispanics overall. That said, Democrats haven’t converted that dissatisfaction into support either: the party’s favorability sits at 51% among the movable middle, down from 61% among Hispanics overall.

Neither Party Has Sealed the Deal 

Many of these voters don’t see a meaningful difference between the parties at all. On every issue tested, 12 to 14 points more of these voters say they see no difference between Democrats and Republicans, compared with Hispanic voters overall. A plurality feels neither party cares much about the Latino community, and for some segments of this middle group, that’s a majority view.

The Outreach and Persuasion Gap Is Wide Open 

That skepticism is showing up at the ballot box, too. Just 64% of these voters say they are certain or almost certain to vote this fall, a 12-point drop from the 76% recorded among Hispanics overall. And they are more motivated to vote as a way to represent the Hispanic community, rather than to support candidates. In addition to the parties and candidates differentiating themselves with these voters, meaningful community engagement is key, and these voters are often contacted at even lower rates. For example, in 2024, about half of Latino independents (51%) say they had no campaign contact at all in 2024. Considering that roughly 1 in 5 Latinos voting this November will be casting a ballot in a midterm for the first time, both parties are leaving a persuasion gap wide open. 

For More Information on the Hispanic Electorate, you can view our Hispanic Electorate Data Hub. 

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