CALIFORNIA POLL: Half of Latino Voters Fear Political Violence; An Overwhelming Majority Want Stronger Checks on the Presidency

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82% of Latino voters in California want Congress to rein in the presidency, and 50% fear political violence could touch them or someone they know.

SACRAMENTO, CA — [Nov. 3, 2025] –  UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization, released a new bipartisan poll today showing that 82% California Latino voters are deeply concerned about Congress not fulfilling its checks-and-balances role and ceding too much of its constitutional authority to President Donald Trump and the executive branch. Half (50%) fear political violence could affect them or someone close, with 60% saying their rights and freedoms feel less secure today, a warning sign that Latinos feel their personal safety is under threat.

Latinos are the nation’s second-largest voting-age population and a critical group whose priorities should carry significant weight, particularly in an environment of razor-thin margins. If the 2026 midterm elections were held today, 75% of California respondents say they are certain or likely to vote, and California’s Latino voters would lean Democratic in House races.

The findings come from the Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: The Road to 2026, a large-scale survey of 3,000 Latino voters across the U.S., including an oversample of 400 Latino voters in California. 

The poll also found that 62% of California Latino voters disapprove of how the Republican Party is leading Congress, and 58% hold Republicans responsible for the federal government shutdown, compared to just 22% who blame Democrats. 

Additionally, in California and across the country, Latino voters are prioritizing economic stability — with top concerns including cost of living and inflation, affordable housing, healthcare and jobs. Immigration is the fifth most important issue.

“Even in a state like California, where we’ve worked hard to pass strong protections for immigrants and expand opportunity, families are still afraid. That tells us the fear is not just about policy, it’s about the erosion of trust in our institutions,” said UnidosUS California Policy Director Esmeralda Lopez. “Californians are demanding more from Congress. They want leaders who will put aside the political theater and focus on keeping communities safe, making life affordable, and defending the democracy we all depend on.”

  • Click HERE to watch a replay of today’s webinar.
  • Click HERE to see a slide presentation of the poll’s California toplines.
  • Click HERE to view demographic crosstabs.
  • For interactive Latino poll results, see Hispanic Electorate Data Hub.

“Latino Californians are at the heart of our state’s workforce and communities, yet many struggle to keep up with rising costs. By focusing on affordable housing and equitable policies, we aim to empower families and strive to give them a fair chance to thrive,” said President and CEO of Visionary Home Builders of California, Inc. Carol J. Ornelas.

Key findings on California Latino voters include:   

On Issues and Economic Landscape

  • Four of the top five priorities for Hispanic voters in California continue to be driven by pocketbook issues:
    • #1 Cost of living/inflation (53%) — Cost of food and basic living expenses, housing affordability, gas prices and electricity bills.
    • #2 Jobs and economy (40%) — Wages, job security, prices and job creation.
    • #3 Housing (34%) — Rising cost of rent and cost of electricity, utilities, taxes, home insurance, home maintenance/repairs and lack of affordable housing.
    • #4 Health care (28%) — Rising health care costs, monthly premiums, co-pays and deductibles.
    • #5 Immigration (22%) — Path to citizenship for law-abiding, long-residing undocumented individuals; safe and humane facilities for those in detention; giving people their day in court.
  • 67% believe President Trump and Congressional Republicans are not focusing enough on improving the economy. 
  • 40% of Californians say elections should focus on jobs, health care, schools, roads and public safety; only 16% prioritize moral or cultural issues.
  • Compared to last year, 40% feel the economy is worse now; only 13% think it’s better.
  • Looking ahead to next year, 49% believe the Trump administration’s economic policies will make them worse off.

On the Political Landscape and Environment

  • Checks-and-balances: 82% say Congress should exercise its constitutional oversight and rein in the presidency.
  • Views of the parties: 56% say the Democratic Party cares a great deal about the Latino community, 27% say the same of the Republican Party.
    • In contrast, 33% say the Republican Party is hostile towards the Latino community, compared with 7% who say that of the Democratic Party.
  • Which party is better on specific issues: Hispanic voters say they trust Democrats more to handle health care (61%), followed by climate change (49%), voting rights (48%), immigration reform (48%), and inflation and affordability (47%). Conversely, they believe Republicans would do a better job managing border security (36%).
  • Military deployments: 32% believe federal military deployments should only happen if state or local leaders request them; 27% say these deployments should not happen at all. Only 26% say the federal government should be able to send military forces even if local governments do not want them.

On Immigration

  • In California, concern about immigration enforcement is high; 74% oppose allowing ICE to use appearance, speaking Spanish, or work such as manual labor as grounds for arrest, among the strongest opposition across states (just below Arizona). 
  • On recent immigration policies and actions, 32% said employers have lost workers because people fear they’ll be arrested if they go to work. 30% of children are missing classes because their parents fear being arrested while taking their kids to school.
  • Top immigration policy priorities include a path to citizenship for law-abiding and long-residing undocumented individuals, including those who were brought to the country as children (40%); ensuring detention facilities are safe, sanitary and humane once immigrants are detained (36%); ensuring people in deportation proceedings have a chance to make their case in court (34%); and cracking down on human smugglers and drug traffickers (34%).

Earlier today, UnidosUS held a virtual press briefing highlighting the national poll results. The organization will continue to host a series of virtual press briefings to share findings at the state level, including: 

  • Georgia: Wednesday, Nov. 5, 11 a.m. ET 
  • Arizona: Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2 p.m. MT / 1 p.m. ET
  • Florida: Thursday, Nov. 6, 10 a.m. ET
  • Colorado: Thursday, Nov. 6, 10 a.m. MT/12 p.m. ET  
  • Texas: Thursday, Nov. 6, 1 p.m. CT / 2 p.m. ET 

About the Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: The Road to 2026

Bipartisan pollster team, BSP Research and Shaw & Co. 

  • Total N=3,000 voters Latino registered voters (+/- 1.8%) 
  • Battleground Congressional Districts N=85 (+/- 3.4%) 

Respondents residing in competitive districts as defined in Cook Political Report as of 10/8/25 

  • Oversamples N= 400 (+/- 4.9%) per: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Texas 

 Field Dates: October 8–22, 2025 

  • Survey available in English and Spanish, according to respondent preference 
  • Mixed mode: live phones, text invites, online panels 

 

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About BSP Research

BSP Research is a Latino-owned polling, research, and analytics firm headquartered in Los Angeles, California. Founded in 2021 by Matt Barreto and Gary Segura, who have more than two decades of experience in national polling and research, BSP Research is a leading research and analytic firm with expertise on the political and social views of the American population and beyond. BSP has industry-leading expertise in culturally competent research on communities of color and other forms of disadvantage, and extensive experience in bilingual polling and data gathering from all varieties of communities.

 

About Dr. Daron R. Shaw

Dr. Shaw is president of Shaw & Company Research and is a professor in the Government Department at the University of Texas at Austin. He teaches American Government, Campaigns & Elections, Public Opinion & Voting Behavior, and Political Parties. Professor Shaw currently serves as one half of the bipartisan polling team for Fox News and is a member of the Fox News Decision Team. He is also associate PI for the 2020 and 2024 American National Election Studies and is co-director of the University of Texas Poll.