New UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll: Hispanic Voters in Northeast Battleground Districts Feeling Economically Strained, Concerned about their Safety and Ready to Vote — With a Clear Message for Candidates

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President Trump’s Latino support continues to erode, with 28% of those who voted for him in 2024 saying they wouldn’t today; 76% of Hispanic voters say they are “certain” or “almost certain” to vote in November

WASHINGTON— Latino voters in Northeast battleground congressional districts are feeling economically strained, overwhelmingly concerned about Congress’s lack of leadership, and preparing to head to the polls in November, according to a sweeping new bipartisan survey released today by UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization.

The new UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters in Northeast Competitive Districts: The Road to the 2026 Midterms makes clear that any elected leader or candidate who ignores the surging sentiment of the Latino electorate, the nation’s second-largest voting-age population, does so at their own peril.

The survey — the largest of its kind, polling 3,000 registered Latino voters nationally including 300 voters in northeast battleground districts — paints an urgent and unmistakable picture: Latino families are living under severe economic strain, losing faith in their constitutional protections and holding Washington directly accountable. The Northeast sample includes voters from NJ-07, NJ-09, NY-03, NY-04, NY-17, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-10.

The Economy Is the Story — And Latinos Are Not Being Heard

Only 14% of Latino voters in northeast battleground districts say they live comfortably. Another 84% are either just meeting expenses, having trouble meeting expenses or meeting expenses with only a little left over — stretched by the cost of food, gas, housing, health care and basic necessities that keep climbing while wages stay flat and Washington stays distracted or takes actions that make matters worse.

When asked for their top priorities on what elected officials must address, pocketbook concerns dominate:

  • Fifty-two percent (52%) cite cost of living as their top priority, particularly the cost of basic living expenses, food and gas.
  • Forty-three percent (43%) want action on wages and the economy, particularly higher wages and job creation.
  • Thirty-five percent (35%) cite soaring health care costs, from increased premiums to access to medication.
  • Twenty-two percent (22%) want action on housing, with utility, insurance, maintenance and repair costs ranking as a leading housing concern.

These are not abstract policy preferences. These are kitchen table breaking points, and Latino voters are delivering a direct verdict:

  • Sixty-six percent (66%) say the country is headed in the wrong direction.
  • Fifty-six percent (56%) say President Trump and congressional Republicans are simply not focused on fixing the economy.
  • Forty-three percent (43%) expect President Trump’s economic policies will leave them even worse off over the next 12 months.
  • Eighty-five percent (85%) express deep concern that Congress is failing to fulfill its checks-and-balances role and is ceding too much authority to the executive branch.

President Trump Is Eroding his Latino Support, But Democrats Have Work to Do

The poll delivers a stark warning for the White House.Sixty-four percent (64%) of Latino voters in northeast battleground districts disapprove of President Trump’s job performance.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of Latino voters in northeast battleground districts who voted for President Trump in 2024 say that if they could do it over again, they would not vote for him — a cautionary note for his party’s candidates heading into November. This compares to 6% of former Vice President Harris voters who say they would not vote for her again.

The drivers of that erosion are telling: the cost of living and inflation (40%), immigration enforcement in American cities (36%), job and wage stagnation (26%) and the war in Iran (25%) top the list. Latino voters are disappointed, and they are making the connection between this administration’s policies and the economic pain they feel every single day.

At the same time, there are also warnings for Democrats, who lead in the generic congressional ballot (57% to 26%, with 17% undecided) but generally need higher Latino support and turnout margins to succeed in competitive districts. And at this point, 50% of Latino voters in these districts are more motivated to vote to support their community, than to support the candidates (32% are motivated to vote to support Democrats, 12% to support Republicans).

These figures should send a clear signal to every candidate about the need for meaningful engagement and response to this expanding group of voters, 43% of whom have joined the electorate in just the last four years.

Constitutional Alarm Bells Paving the Way Toward November

The economic crisis is not the only thing shaping Latino voter sentiment:

  • Fifty-one percent (51%) say civil rights and liberties have become less secure under the current administration.
  • Forty-five percent (45%) are not confident the government will respect their basic constitutional rights.
  • Eighty percent (80%) think the president should be required to get congressional approval before taking military action against another country.
  • Eighty-five percent (85%) say Congress is failing its constitutional duty by ceding too much authority to the executive branch.

Immigration: Nuance the Narrative Misses

The poll also delivers an important corrective to the online immigration conversation. Immigration remains a top priority for Hispanic voters in northeast battleground districts, and the community’s views are far more nuanced than the loudest voices online suggest.

Hispanics want to see a fair and orderly immigration system. That is not the same as support for mass deportations. In fact, nearly 8 in 10 Latino voters in northwest battleground districts support legalization for long-residing undocumented immigrants, and that support holds at 74% even if it’s called an “amnesty.” And 72% of Latino voters in northeast battleground districts oppose providing additional funding for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) without guardrails.

These immigration actions have broader implications — 37% say they or people in their communities fear immigration authorities will harass or arrest them even if they are U.S. citizens or legal residents, and 27% say children are missing school because parents are afraid of being arrested during drop-off and pick-up. These actions have real, measurable economic consequences: 28% report that employers have lost workers, and 26% say these actions are hurting the local economy.

This is a crisis unfolding in American communities, schools and workplaces right now.

“The Northeast districts we surveyed reflect what UnidosUS has heard during community events with local leaders, service providers and families in Pennsylvania and New Jersey,” said UnidosUS Senior Director of Political Campaigns Rafael Collazo. “People are working toward stability, but rising costs and strained services are making that harder every month. The cost of living, jobs and wages, health care, housing, education and Social Security are not abstract policy debates; they are daily pressures affecting households, schools, employers and nonprofits. Leaders should protect the support families rely on and invest in the community infrastructure closest to the need.”

“In the Lehigh Valley, more families are turning to community-based support because food, rent, utilities, health care and transportation are taking up more of their income,” said Hispanic Center Lehigh Valley Executive Director Raymond Santiago. “People are working toward self-sufficiency, but the systems around them are under strain too. When resources are cut for households and for the organizations closest to them, the pressure shows up everywhere — in schools, workplaces, health systems and local businesses. Leaders should protect the services families rely on and invest in the community infrastructure that keeps the region stable.”

For More Information on the Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: Road to the 2026:

About the UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: The Road to 2026 Midterms:

Bipartisan Pollster team: BSP Research and Shaw & Co. Research

  • Total N = 3,000 registered Latino voters, margin of error of +/- 1.8
  • 300 respondents from NJ-07, NJ-09, NY-03, NY-04, NY-17, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-10, margin of error of +/- 5.7
  • Field dates: April 27 – May 14, 2026
  • Survey available in English and Spanish according to respondent preference
  • Mixed-mode data collection strategy: live telephone interviews, text invitations, and verified online panels matched to voter files

The UnidosUS bipartisan survey includes robust state-level oversamples and targets 32 competitive battleground congressional districts across six distinct regional clusters.

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About UnidosUS

UnidosUS is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that serves as the nation’s largest Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization. Since 1968, we have built a stronger America by creating opportunities for Latinos and breaking down barriers to expand economic and social progress for all. UnidosUS partners with an Affiliate Network of nearly 300 community-based organizations across the United States and Puerto Rico. For more information on UnidosUS, visit www.unidosus.org or follow us on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, X and Threads.

About BSP Research

BSP Research is a Latino-owned polling, research, and analytics firm headquartered in Los Angeles, California. Founded in 2021 by Matt Barreto and Gary Segura, who have more than two decades of experience in national polling and research, BSP Research is a leading research and analytic firm with expertise on the political and social views of the American population and beyond. BSP has industry-leading expertise in culturally competent research on communities of color and other forms of disadvantage, and extensive experience in bilingual polling and data gathering from all varieties of communities.

About Dr. Daron R. Shaw

Dr. Shaw is president of Shaw & Company Research and is a professor in the Government Department at the University of Texas at Austin. He teaches American Government, Campaigns & Elections, Public Opinion & Voting Behavior, and Political Parties. Professor Shaw currently serves as one half of the bipartisan polling team for Fox News and is a member of the Fox News Decision Team. He is also associate PI for the 2020 and 2024 American National Election Studies and is co-director of the University of Texas Poll.