New UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll: California Hispanic Voters Feeling Economically Strained, Concerned about their Safety and Ready to Vote — With a Clear Message for Candidates

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President Trump’s Latino support continues to erode with 28% of those who voted for him in 2024 saying they wouldn’t today; 75% of Hispanic voters say they are “certain” or “almost certain” to vote in November

WASHINGTON —California Latino voters are feeling economically strained, overwhelmingly concerned about Congress’ lack of leadership and planning to head to the polls in numbers similar to the record-setting 2018 midterms, according to a sweeping new bipartisan survey released today by UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization.

The new UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: The Road to the 2026 Midterms makes clear that any elected leader or candidate who ignores the surging sentiment of the Latino electorate, the nation’s second largest voting age population, does so at their own peril.

The survey — the largest of its kind, polling 3,000 registered Latino voters nationally, including 500 in California with 300 from battleground congressional districts — paints an urgent and unmistakable picture: Latino families are living under severe economic strain, losing faith in their constitutional protections and holding Washington directly accountable.

“California’s economy depends on working families and this poll shows: housing, utilities, food and health care are taking up more of every paycheck, and too many families are being pushed further from stability.” said UnidosUS California State Director Esmeralda López. “Only 11% of California Hispanic voters say they live comfortably, which points to millions of people in the state’s electorate who are just getting by or falling behind. We also know Latino voters fear getting caught up in immigration arrests and enforcement actions, even at schools which are impacting students. That is a warning sign for the whole state. Leaders should be building relief into the systems families rely on — housing, health care, child care and wages — instead of allowing costs and red tape to make California harder to call home.”

“In the Central Valley, the affordability crisis isn’t abstract, it’s something families work through every day. You see it when neighbors are trying to find a safe place to rent, when a small water system needs attention, or when utility bills stretch a household budget,” said Self-Help Enterprises Director, Eddie Ocampo. “But you also see communities stepping up and solutions that work. When we invest in housing, infrastructure, and basic stability, we can meet this moment together. The people who work this land and sustain this region should be able to live here with dignity and a real sense of belonging. By strengthening the tools that help families stay housed, healthy and connected, we can keep our communities strong for the long run.”

The Economy Is the Story — And Latinos Are Not Being Heard

Only 11% of Latino voters in California say they live comfortably. The other 87% are locked in a continuous daily struggle to stay financially afloat — stretched by the cost of food, gas, housing, health care and basic necessities that keep climbing while wages stay flat and Washington stays distracted or takes actions that make matters worse.

When asked for their top priorities on what elected officials must address, pocketbook concerns dominate:

  • Sixty-one percent (61%) cite the cost of living as their top priority, particularly the cost of basic living expenses, food and gas.
  • Forty-one percent (41%) want action on wages and the economy, particularly higher wages and job creation.
  • Forty-one percent (41%) cite soaring health care costs, from increased premiums to access to medication.
  • Thirty-four percent (34%) want action on housing, with utility, insurance, maintenance and repair costs ranking as a leading housing concern.

These are not abstract policy preferences. These are kitchen table breaking points, and Latino voters are delivering a direct verdict:

  • Seventy-four percent (74%) say the country is headed in the wrong direction.
  • Seventy-two percent (72%) say President Trump and congressional Republicans are simply not focused on fixing the economy.
  • Fifty-five percent (55%) expect President Trump’s economic policies will leave them even worse off over the next 12 months.
  • Eighty-six percent (86%) express deep concern that Congress is failing to fulfill its checks-and-balances role and is ceding too much authority to the executive branch.

President Trump Is Eroding his Latino Support, But Democrats Have Work to Do

The poll delivers a stark warning for the White House. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Latino voters in California disapprove of President Trump’s job performance — an almost exact match to voters in the state’s battleground congressional districts (70%).

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of Latino voters in California who voted for President Trump in 2024 say that if they could do it over again, they would not vote for him — a cautionary note for his party’s candidates heading into November. This compares to 2% of former Vice President Harris voters who say they would not vote for her again.

The drivers of that erosion are telling: the cost of living and inflation (46%), immigration enforcement in American cities (30%), the war in Iran (27%) and jobs and wages (25%) top the list. Latino voters are disappointed, and they are making the connection between this administration’s policies and the economic pain they feel every single day.

At the same time, there are also warnings for Democrats, who lead in the generic ballot (59% to 22%, with 19% undecided) but generally need higher Latino support and turnout margins to succeed in competitive districts. Among Latino Democrats, voters are more motivated to vote in support of their community than in support of Democratic candidates; among Latino Republicans, a plurality is motivated to vote to support their candidates. Independents are lukewarm on both parties.

The poll took place in the immediate aftermath of Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal, and no candidate registered support from more than one-in-five Latino voters, though Xavier Becerra had the lead (19%), followed by Tom Steyer (11%), and Steve Hilton (11%), while 29% remained undecided and 6% did not know enough to say. The large undecided share underscores the need for early, meaningful engagement with Latino voters.

These figures should send a clear signal to every California candidate about the need for meaningful engagement and response to this expanding group of voters, 45% of whom have joined the electorate in just the last four years.

Constitutional Alarm Bells Paving the Way Toward November

The economic crisis is not the only thing shaping Latino voter sentiment:

  • Sixty-four percent (64%) say civil rights and liberties have become less secure under the current administration.
  • Fifty-eight percent (58%) are not confident the government will respect their basic constitutional rights.
  • Eighty-two percent (82%) think the president should be required to get congressional approval before taking military action against another country.
  • Eighty-six percent (86%) say Congress is failing its constitutional duty by ceding too much authority to the executive branch.

Immigration: Nuance the Narrative Misses

The poll also delivers an important correction to the online immigration conversation. Immigration is the fifth top priority for Hispanic voters in California, and the community’s views are far more nuanced than the loudest voices online suggest.

Hispanics want to see a fair and orderly immigration system. That is not the same as support for mass deportations. In fact, an overwhelming majority of Latino voters in California (81%, same for Latino Republicans) support legalization for long-residing undocumented immigrants; and that support holds at 75% even if the program is described as “amnesty.” And 75% of Latino voters in California oppose providing additional funding for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) without guardrails.

Current immigration actions have broader implications: 44% say they or people in their communities fear immigration authorities will harass or arrest them even if they are U.S. citizens or legal residents, and 31% say children are missing school because parents are afraid of being arrested during drop-off and pick-up. These actions have real, measurable economic consequences: 32% report that employers have lost workers, and 30% say these actions are hurting the local economy.

This is not a debate about policy abstractions. It is a crisis unfolding in American communities, schools and workplaces right now.

For More Information on the Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: Road to the 2026:

  • Click HERE to watch a replay of today’s national webinar.
  • Click HERE to see a slide presentation of the poll’s toplines.
  • Click HERE to view demographic crosstabs.
  • For interactive national and state poll results see Hispanic Electorate Data Hub.

About the UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: The Road to 2026 Midterms:

Bipartisan Pollster team: BSP Research and Shaw & Co. Research

  • Total N = 3,000 registered Latino voters, margin of error of +/- 1.8
  • California N = 500 registered Latino voters, margin of error of +/- ±4.4
  • California battleground congressional districts N = 300 respondents from CA-13, CA-21, CA-22, CA-45, and CA-48, margin of error of +/- ±5.7
  • Field dates: April 27 – May 14, 2026
  • Survey available in English and Spanish according to respondent preference
  • Mixed-mode data collection strategy: live telephone interviews, text invitations, and verified online panels matched to voter files

The UnidosUS bipartisan survey includes robust state-level oversamples and targets 32 competitive battleground congressional districts across six distinct regional clusters.

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About UnidosUS

UnidosUS is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that serves as the nation’s largest Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization. Since 1968, we have built a stronger America by creating opportunities for Latinos and breaking down barriers to expand economic and social progress for all. UnidosUS partners with an Affiliate Network of nearly 300 community-based organizations across the United States and Puerto Rico. For more information on UnidosUS, visit www.unidosus.org or follow us on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, X and Threads.    

About BSP Research

BSP Research is a Latino-owned polling, research, and analytics firm headquartered in Los Angeles, California. Founded in 2021 by Matt Barreto and Gary Segura, who have more than two decades of experience in national polling and research, BSP Research is a leading research and analytic firm with expertise on the political and social views of the American population and beyond. BSP has industry-leading expertise in culturally competent research on communities of color and other forms of disadvantage, and extensive experience in bilingual polling and data gathering from all varieties of communities.

About Dr. Daron R. Shaw

Dr. Shaw is president of Shaw & Company Research and is a professor in the Government Department at the University of Texas at Austin. He teaches American Government, Campaigns & Elections, Public Opinion & Voting Behavior, and Political Parties. Professor Shaw currently serves as one half of the bipartisan polling team for Fox News and is a member of the Fox News Decision Team. He is also associate PI for the 2020 and 2024 American National Election Studies and is co-director of the University of Texas Poll.