New UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll: Arizona Hispanic Voters Feeling Economically Strained, Concerned about their Safety and Ready to Vote — With a Clear Message for Candidates

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President Trump’s Latino support continues to erode with 19% of those who voted for him in 2024 saying they wouldn’t today; 75% of Hispanic voters say they are “certain” or “almost certain” to vote in November

WASHINGTON — Arizona Latino voters are feeling economically strained, overwhelmingly concerned about Congress’ lack of leadership and preparing to head to the polls in November, according to a sweeping new bipartisan survey released today by UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization.

The new UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: The Road to the 2026 Midterms makes clear that any elected leader or candidate who ignores the surging sentiment of the Latino electorate, the nation’s second largest voting age population, does so at their own peril.

The survey — the largest of its kind, polling 3,000 registered Latino voters nationally, including 400 in Arizona with 200 from battleground congressional districts — paints an urgent and unmistakable picture: Latino families are living under severe economic strain, worried about  their constitutional protections and holding Washington directly accountable.

“Arizona  families are looking for leaders who understand what working people are going through every day,” said UnidosUS Arizona State Director Enrique Davis-Mazlum. “This bipartisan poll makes clear that Latino voters are deeply concerned about the rising cost of living, wages that are not keeping up, access to health care, housing affordability, and economic stability. When groceries, rent, utilities, and health care become harder to afford, families feel the pressure immediately, and local economies feel it too. Voters are asking for practical solutions that lower costs, expand opportunity, strengthen wages, and help working families build long-term stability and economic security.”

The Economy Is the Story — And Latinos Are Not Being Heard 

Only 16% of Latino voters in Arizona say they live comfortably. Another 81% are either just meeting expenses, having trouble meeting expenses, or meeting expenses with only a little left over — stretched by the cost of food, gas, housing, health care and basic necessities that keep climbing while wages stay flat and Washington stays distracted or takes actions that make matters worse.

When asked for their top priorities on what elected officials must address, pocketbook concerns dominate:

  • Fifty-seven percent (57%) cite the cost of living as their top priority, particularly the cost of basic living expenses, food and gas.
  • Forty-four percent (44%) want action on wages and the economy, particularly higher wages and job creation.
  • Thirty-two percent (32%) cite soaring health care costs, from increased premiums to access to medication.
  • Twenty-five percent (25%) want action on housing, with utility, insurance, maintenance and repair costs ranking as a leading housing concern.

These are not abstract policy preferences. These are kitchen table breaking points, and Latino voters are delivering a direct verdict:

  • Sixty-seven percent (67%) say the country is headed in the wrong direction.
  • Sixty-six percent (66%) say President Trump and congressional Republicans are simply not focused on fixing the economy.
  • Fifty-six percent (56%) expect President Trump’s economic policies will leave them even worse off over the next 12 months.
  • Seventy-nine percent (79%) express deep concern that Congress is failing to fulfill its checks-and-balances role and is ceding too much authority to the executive branch.

President Trump Is Eroding his Latino Support, But Democrats Have Work to Do

The poll delivers a stark warning for the White House. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Latino voters in Arizona disapprove of President Trump’s job performance — and that sentiment is slightly higher in Arizona battleground congressional districts (69%).

Nearly a fifth (19%) of Latino voters in Arizona who voted for President Trump in 2024 say that if they could do it over again, they would not vote for him — a cautionary note for his party’s candidates heading into November. This compares to 3% of former Vice President Harris voters who say they would not vote for her again.

The drivers of that erosion are telling: the cost of living and inflation (41%), immigration enforcement in American cities (34%), jobs and wages (24%), and the war in Iran (24%) top the list. Latino voters are disappointed, and they are making the connection between this administration’s policies and the economic pain they feel every single day.

At the same time, there are also warnings for Democrats, who lead in the generic ballot (53% to 25%, with 22% undecided) but generally need higher Latino support and turnout margins to succeed in competitive districts. In the race for governor, Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Rep. Andy Biggs 52% to 21%, with 28% undecided or not knowing enough to say. 

These figures should send a clear signal to every candidate about the need for meaningful engagement and response to this expanding group of voters, 35% of whom have joined the electorate in just the last four years. At this point, almost half (49%) of Latino voters in Arizona are more motivated to vote to support their community, rather than the candidates. That said, among Latino Republicans, the majority are motivated to support their candidates. 

Constitutional Alarm Bells Paving the Way Toward November

The economic crisis is not the only thing shaping Latino voter sentiment:

  • Fifty-two percent (52%) say civil rights and liberties have become less secure under the current administration.
  • Fifty-four percent (54%) are not confident the government will respect their basic constitutional rights.
  • Seventy-seven percent (77%) think the president should be required to get congressional approval before taking military action against another country.
  • Seventy-nine percent (79%) say Congress is failing its constitutional duty by ceding too much authority to the executive branch.

Immigration: Nuance the Narrative Misses

The poll also delivers an important correction to the online immigration conversation. Immigration remains a top priority for Hispanic voters in Arizona, and the community’s views are far more nuanced than the loudest voices online suggest.

Hispanics want to see a fair and orderly immigration system. That is not the same as support for mass deportations. In fact, an overwhelming majority of Latino voters in Arizona (82%) support legalization for long-residing undocumented immigrants, and that support holds at 75% with Latino Republican voters even if the program is described as “amnesty.” And 73% of Latino voters in Arizona oppose providing additional funding for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) without protections.

These immigration actions have broader implications — 44% say they or people in their communities fear immigration authorities will harass or arrest them even if they are U.S. citizens or legal residents, and 26% say children are missing school because parents are afraid of being arrested during drop-off and pick-up. These actions have real, measurable economic consequences: 30% report that employers have lost workers, and 28% say these actions are hurting the local economy.

This is a crisis unfolding in American communities, schools and workplaces right now.

For More Information on the Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: Road to the 2026:

  • Click HERE to watch a replay of today’s national webinar.
  • Click HERE to see a slide presentation of the poll’s toplines.
  • Click HERE to view demographic crosstabs.
  • For interactive national and state poll results, see Hispanic Electorate Data Hub.

About the UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: The Road to 2026 Midterms:

Bipartisan Pollster team: BSP Research and Shaw & Co. Research

  • Total N = 3,000 registered Latino voters, margin of error of +/- 1.8
  • Arizona N = 400 registered Latino voters, margin of error of +/- ±4.9
  • Arizona battleground congressional districts N = 200 respondents from AZ-01, AZ-02, and AZ-06, margin of error of +/- ±6.9
  • Field dates: April 27 – May 14, 2026
  • Survey available in English and Spanish according to respondent preference
  • Mixed-mode data collection strategy: live telephone interviews, text invitations, and verified online panels matched to voter files

The UnidosUS bipartisan survey includes robust state-level oversamples and targets 32 competitive battleground congressional districts across six distinct regional clusters. 

 

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About UnidosUS

UnidosUS is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that serves as the nation’s largest Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization. Since 1968, we have built a stronger America by creating opportunities for Latinos and breaking down barriers to expand economic and social progress for all. UnidosUS partners with an Affiliate Network of nearly 300 community-based organizations across the United States and Puerto Rico. For more information on UnidosUS, visit www.unidosus.org or follow us on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, X and Threads.    

About BSP Research

BSP Research is a Latino-owned polling, research, and analytics firm headquartered in Los Angeles, California. Founded in 2021 by Matt Barreto and Gary Segura, who have more than two decades of experience in national polling and research, BSP Research is a leading research and analytic firm with expertise on the political and social views of the American population and beyond. BSP has industry-leading expertise in culturally competent research on communities of color and other forms of disadvantage, and extensive experience in bilingual polling and data gathering from all varieties of communities.

About Dr. Daron R. Shaw

Dr. Shaw is president of Shaw & Company Research and is a professor in the Government Department at the University of Texas at Austin. He teaches American Government, Campaigns & Elections, Public Opinion & Voting Behavior, and Political Parties. Professor Shaw currently serves as one half of the bipartisan polling team for Fox News and is a member of the Fox News Decision Team. He is also associate PI for the 2020 and 2024 American National Election Studies and is co-director of the University of Texas Poll.