ARIZONA POLL: 82% Want Stronger Checks on the Presidency; Nearly Half of Latino Voters Fear Political Violence

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Pocketbook issues continue to dominate Hispanic voter priorities, 7 in 10 Hispanic voters feel the President and Republican majority are not focusing enough attention on the economy

PHOENIX, AZ — UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization, released a new survey today showing that 82% of Arizona Latino voters are concerned about Congress not fulfilling its checks-and-balances role and ceding too much of its constitutional authority to the President and executive branch. Nearly half (46%) say they are “very” or “extremely” concerned that political violence could affect them or someone close to them, and express concern that they will be arrested even if they are U.S. citizens or legal immigrants. On civil rights, 61% believe their rights and liberties are less secure.

Latinos are the nation’s second-largest voting-age population and a critical group whose priorities should carry significant weight, particularly in an environment of razor-thin margins. If the 2026 midterm elections were held today, 76% of Arizona respondents say they are certain or likely to vote, and Arizona’s Latino voters would lean Democratic in U.S. House races (52% to 27%). However, both parties underperform when compared to voter support levels in 2024, likely a sign of voter discontent. 

The findings come from the Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: The Road to 2026, a large-scale survey of 3,000 Latino voters across the U.S., including an oversample of 400 Latino voters in Arizona.

The survey also found that 65% of Arizona Latino voters disapprove of how the Republican Party is leading Congress, and hold the President and Republicans responsible for the federal government shutdown, compared to just 21% who blame Democrats. Moreover, 66% disapprove of President Trump’s performance. Among those who voted for him in 2024, 7% would not vote for him in a do-over, compared to less than 1% of Harris voters who would not vote for her.

  • Click HERE to watch a replay of today’s webinar.
  • Click HERE to see a slide presentation of the poll’s Arizona toplines.
  • Click HERE to view demographic crosstabs.
  • For interactive Latino poll results, see Hispanic Electorate Data Hub.

“What we’re hearing from Arizona’s Latino families is frustration and exhaustion. People are working harder and falling further behind. They’re not just worried about the cost of living; they’re questioning whether anyone in power actually sees what they’re up against,” said Enrique Davis-Mazlum, Arizona State Director of UnidosUS. “Rent, groceries, healthcare—everything feels like a fight. People aren’t asking for shortcuts. They’re asking for a fair shot and leaders who are willing to step up.” 

“These numbers confirm what we’re hearing every single day on the ground in Arizona—small business owners watching sales drop by 30%, families choosing between groceries and rent, and U.S. citizens terrified their loved ones could be swept up in immigration enforcement,” said Raquel Terán, Director, Proyecto Progreso.

“But beneath the economic pressure is something even deeper—a fear of not being safe, not being seen, not belonging. When nearly half of Latino voters say they’re worried political violence could touch their families, it tells us that more than just policy is at stake. It’s about who feels protected in this country—and who doesn’t.

“Our communities are sounding the alarm, and it’s time for leaders to step up. The political theater in D.C. isn’t putting food on the table or keeping Arizona families safe.”

Key findings on Arizona Latino voters include:

On Issues and Economic Landscape

  • Four of the top five priorities for Hispanic voters in Arizona continue to be driven by pocketbook issues:
    • #1 Cost of living/inflation (56%) — Cost of food and basic living expenses, housing affordability, gas prices and electricity bills.
    • #2 Housing (34%) — Rising cost of rent and cost of electricity, utilities, taxes, home insurance, home maintenance/repairs and lack of affordable housing.
    • #3 Jobs and economy (34%) — Wages, job security, prices and job creation.
    • #4 Health care (29%) — Rising health care costs, monthly premiums, co-pays and deductibles.
    • #5 Immigration (21%) — Path to citizenship for law-abiding, long-residing undocumented individuals; safe and humane facilities for those in detention; giving people their day in court.
  • Seven in 10 Arizona Latino voters (69%) believe President Trump and congressional Republicans are not focusing enough on improving the economy. 
  • Compared to last year, 41% feel the economy is worse now; only 11% think it’s better.
  • Looking ahead to next year, 49% believe the Trump administration’s economic policies will make them worse off.

On the Political Landscape and Environment

  • Checks-and-balances: 82% say Congress should exercise its constitutional oversight and rein in presidential actions.
  • Military deployments: A majority do not support the way in which military deployments are occurring (67%), including 32% who believe federal military deployments should not happen at all.
  • Views of the parties: 56% say the Democratic Party cares a great deal about the Latino community, while 23% say the same of the Republican Party.
    • In contrast, 35% say the Republican Party is hostile towards the Latino community, compared with 9% who say that of the Democratic Party.
  • Which party is better on specific issues: Hispanic voters say they trust Democrats more to handle health care (51%), followed by the cost of housing, voting rights, and jobs and employment (49%), climate change (48%), inflation and affordability and taxes and immigration reform (47%).

On Immigration

  • In Arizona, concern about immigration enforcement is high; 75% oppose allowing ICE to use appearance, languages or work/manual labor as grounds for arrest — among the strongest opposition across states (just above California).
  • On recent immigration policies and actions, 34% said people are more afraid to attend immigration appointments; 33% said employers have lost workers because people fear they’ll be arrested if they go to work; 33% said people are more afraid to report crimes or interact with the police; and 30% said children are missing classes because their parents fear being arrested while taking their kids to school.
  • Top immigration policy priorities include a path to citizenship for law-abiding and long-residing undocumented individuals, including those brought here as children (49%); ensuring people in deportation proceedings have a chance to make their case in court (38%); cracking down on human smugglers and drug traffickers (34%); and ensuring detention facilities are safe, sanitary and humane once immigrants are detained (33%).

Earlier this week, UnidosUS held a virtual press briefing highlighting the national poll results. The organization will continue to host a series of virtual press briefings to share findings at the state level, including: 

  • Florida: Thursday, Nov. 6, 10 a.m. ET
  • Colorado: Thursday, Nov. 6, 10 a.m. MT/12 p.m. ET  
  • Texas: Thursday, Nov. 6, 1 p.m. CT / 2 p.m. ET 

About the Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters: The Road to 2026 Bipartisan pollster team, BSP Research and Shaw & Co.

  • Total N=3,000 voters 
  • N= 400 per: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Texas
  • Margin of error +/- 1.8%. 
  • Field Dates: October 8–22, 2025
  • Survey available in English and Spanish, according to respondent preference
  • Mixed mode: live phones, text invites, online panels.

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About BSP Research

BSP Research is a Latino-owned polling, research, and analytics firm headquartered in Los Angeles, California. Founded in 2021 by Matt Barreto and Gary Segura, who have more than two decades of experience in national polling and research, BSP Research is a leading research and analytic firm with expertise on the political and social views of the American population and beyond. BSP has industry-leading expertise in culturally competent research on communities of color and other forms of disadvantage, and extensive experience in bilingual polling and data gathering from all varieties of communities. 

 

About Dr. Daron R. Shaw

Dr. Shaw is president of Shaw & Company Research and is a professor in the Government Department at the University of Texas at Austin. He teaches American Government, Campaigns & Elections, Public Opinion & Voting Behavior, and Political Parties. Professor Shaw currently serves as one half of the bipartisan polling team for Fox News and is a member of the Fox News Decision Team. He is also associate PI for the 2020 and 2024 American National Election Studies and is co-director of the University of Texas Poll.