Competitive Districts
Latino Voters in Competitive Congressional Districts (November 2023)
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CD |
LATINO % OF CVAP |
LATINO % OF REGISTERED |
TOTAL LATINOS REGISTERED |
PRESIDENTIAL MARGIN (‘20) |
HOUSE MARGIN (‘22) |
INCUMBENT |
COMPETITIVENESS RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-01 | 8.60 | 7.28 | 42,039 | 10.1% | 9.89% | Peltola (D) | LEAN DEM |
| AZ-01 | 14.00 | 10.38 | 60,003 | 1.5% | 0.88% | Schweikert (R) | TOSS UP |
| AZ-02 | 14.66 | 12.96 | 74,251 | 7.9% | 7.7% | Crane (R) | LIKELY REP |
| AZ-06 | 21.95 | 18.06 | 101,014 | 0.1% | 1.5% | Ciscomani (R) | TOSS UP |
| CA-03 | 11.49 | 9.78 | 50,495 | 1.8% | 7% | Kiley (R) | LIKELY REP |
| CA-09 | 31.12 | 29.91 | 112,943 | 12.6% | 10% | Harder (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| CA-13 | 54.10 | 47.44 | 153,823 | 10.9% | 0.42% | Duarte (R) | TOSS UP |
| CA-22 | 65.29 | 56.59 | 168,018 | 12.9% | 3% | Valadao (R) | LEAN REP |
| CA-26 | 35.62 | 30.43 | 136,469 | 20% | 9% | Brownley (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| CA-27 | 39.14 | 32.4 | 142,240 | 12.4% | 6% | Garcia (R) | TOSS UP |
| CA-40 | 21.15 | 18.78 | 90,337 | 1.9% | 13.6% | Kim (R) | LIKELY REP |
| CA-41 | 34.01 | 29.7 | 135,532 | 1.1% | 5% | Calvert (R) | TOSS UP |
| CA-45 | 24.89 | 22.57 | 96,662 | 6.2% | 5% | Steel (R) | LEAN REP |
| CA-47 | 14.83 | 13.34 | 58,793 | 11.1% | 3% | OPEN | LEAN DEM |
| CA-49 | 21.73 | 18.35 | 84,863 | 11.4% | 5% | Levin (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| CO-03 | 21.33 | 17.94 | 98,184 | 8.3% | 0.17% | Boebert (R) | TOSS UP |
| CO-08 | 30.61 | 25.0 | 115,960 | 4.6% | 0.69% | Caraveo (D) | TOSS UP |
| CT-05 | 17.75 | 13.0 | 60,952 | 10.7% | 0.79% | Hayes (D) | TOSS UP |
| FL-09 | 48.07 | 45.38 | 231,585 | 17.4% | 7.2% | Soto (D) | LEAN DEM |
| FL-13 | 8.33 | 6.33 | 36,856 | 6.8% | 8% | Luna (R) | LIKELY REP |
| FL-23 | 18.46 | 15.63 | 85,385 | 13.2% | 4.8% | Moskowitz (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| IL-14 | 18.33 | 14.47 | 71,523 | 11.5% | 8% | Underwood (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| IL-17 | 7.73 | 6.31 | 30,504 | 7.8% | 4% | Sorensen (D) | LEAN DEM |
| IN-01 | 13.86 | 11.92 | 63,604 | 8.4% | 6% | Mrvan (D) | LEAN DEM |
| IA-01 | 4.32 | 3.37 | 18,837 | 2.9% | 7% | Miller-Meeks (R) | LIKELY REP |
| IA-02 | 2.21 | 1.38 | 9,992 | 4.4% | 8% | Hinson (R) | LIKELY REP |
| IA-03 | 4.63 | 3.5 | 18,606 | 0.3% | 0.69% | Nunn (R) | LEAN REP |
| KS-03 | 6.39 | 5.36 | 28,052 | 4.5% | 12.1% | Davids (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| ME-02 | 1.63 | 1.2 | 6,535 | 6.1% | 6% | Golden (D) | LEAN DEM |
| MD-06 | 8.28 | 6.45 | 35,035 | 9.8% | 10% | OPEN | LIKELY DEM |
| MI-03 | 6.80 | 6.07 | 35,672 | 8.5% | 12.9% | Scholten (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| MI-07 | 4.84 | 3.99 | 24,212 | 0.5% | 5% | OPEN | TOSS UP |
| MI-08 | 4.43 | 3.76 | 24,287 | 2% | 10% | Kildee (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| MI-10 | 2.30 | 2.12 | 12,923 | 1% | 0.49% | James (R) | LEAN REP |
| MN-2 | 4.66 | 3.53 | 15,914 | 7.2% | 5% | Craig (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| MT-01 | 3.06 | 2.38 | 9,219 | 6.9% | 3% | Zinke (R) | LIKELY REP |
| NE-02 | 7.11 | 5.47 | 21,640 | 6.3% | 3% | Bacon (R) | LEAN REP |
| NV-01 | 27.44 | 23.37 | 121,799 | 8.5% | 6% | Titus (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| NV-03 | 17.14 | 15.72 | 86,371 | 6.6% | 4% | Lee (D) | LEAN DEM |
| NV-04 | 26.64 | 22.68 | 118,124 | 8.3% | 5% | Horsford (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| NH-01 | 3.04 | 1.7 | 9,768 | 5.9% | 8% | Pappas (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| NJ-03 | 7.86 | 7.53 | 44,024 | 14% | 11.9% | OPEN | LIKELY DEM |
| NJ-07 | 9.09 | 6.28 | 52,076 | 3.9% | 3% | Kean Jr. (R) | TOSS UP |
| NM-02 | 56.46 | 50.4 | 199,861 | 5.9% | 0.7% | Vasquez (D) | TOSS UP |
| NY-01 | 8.93 | 8.27 | 48,998 | 0.2% | 11% | LaLota (R) | LIKELY REP |
| NY-03 | 11.11 | 9.6 | 54,010 | 8.2% | 8% | Santos (R) | TOSS UP |
| NY-04 | 15.83 | 14.05 | 80,433 | 14.5% | 4% | D’Esposito (R) | TOSS UP |
| NY-17 | 14.21 | 12.25 | 65,825 | 10.1% | 0.64% | Lawler (R) | TOSS UP |
| NY-18 | 14.33 | 12.59 | 66,881 | 8.4% | 1.3% | Ryan (D) | LEAN DEM |
| NY-19 | 5.27 | 4.2 | 22,565 | 4.6% | 1.6% | Molinaro (R) | TOSS UP |
| NY-22 | 4.33 | 3.59 | 18,217 | 7.5% | 0.98% | Williams (R) | TOSS UP |
| NC-01 | 3.34 | 2.56 | 13,128 | 7.3% | 5% | Davis (D) | TOSS UP |
| NC-06 | 5.53 | 3.98 | 19,735 | 12.4% | 9% | Manning (D) | LIKELY REP |
| NC-13 | 6.20 | 5.43 | 27,905 | 1.7% | 3% | Nickel (D) | LIKELY REP |
| NC-14 | 7.60 | 5.48 | 27,848 | 16.4% | 15.4% | OPEN | LIKELY REP |
| OH-01 | 2.75 | 1.94 | 10,779 | 8.5% | 6% | Landsman (D) | LEAN DEM |
| OH-13 | 2.02 | 1.48 | 7,800 | 2.8% | 5% | Sykes (D) | TOSS UP |
| OR-04 | 6.58 | 4.9 | 30,372 | 12.7% | 7% | Hoyle (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| OR-05 | 7.12 | 5.82 | 36,555 | 8.9% | 2% | Chavez-DeRemer (R) | TOSS UP |
| OR-06 | 13.15 | 10.88 | 59,739 | 13.2% | 2% | Salinas (D) | LEAN DEM |
| PA-07 | 15.54 | 12.73 | 63,883 | 0.6% | 2% | Wild (D) | TOSS UP |
| PA-08 | 10.45 | 7.67 | 37,006 | 2.9% | 2% | Cartwright (D) | TOSS UP |
| PA-10 | 7.25 | 5.95 | 29,896 | 4.1% | 7.6% | Perry (R) | LIKELY REP |
| PA-17 | 1.48 | 1.38 | 7,345 | 5.8% | 7% | Deluzio (D) | LEAN DEM |
| TX-15 | 74.18 | 69.02 | 272,547 | 2.9% | 8% | De la Cruz (R) | LIKELY REP |
| TX-28 | 71.09 | 66.43 | 289,584 | 7% | 13.4% | Cuellar (D) | LEAN DEM |
| TX-34 | 87.97 | 83.09 | 321,902 | 15.5% | 9% | Gonzalez (D) | LEAN DEM |
| VA-02 | 6.16 | 5.5 | 31,103 | 1.9% | 3% | Kiggans (R) | LEAN REP |
| VA-07 | 11.38 | 10.54 | 56,723 | 6.8% | 5% | Spanberger (D) | LEAN DEM |
| VA-10 | 12.14 | 10.16 | 54,094 | 18.1% | 7% | OPEN | LEAN DEM |
| WA-03 | 6.83 | 5.72 | 31,368 | 4.2% | 0.83% | Gluesenkamp Pérez (D) | TOSS UP |
| WA-08 | 6.65 | 6.31 | 34,263 | 6.7% | 7% | Schrier (D) | LIKELY DEM |
| WI-03 | 1.83 | 1.58 | 6,684 | 4.7% | 4% | Van Orden (R) | LIKELY REP |
Key and Sources
CD = Congressional District
CVAP = Citizen Voting Age Population
| BLUE | Designated “Likely Democratic” | RED | Designated “Likely Republican” | |
| LIGHT BLUE | Designated “Leans Democratic” | LIGHT RED | Designated “Leans Republican” | |
| PURPLE | Designated “Toss Up” |
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Cook Political Report, New York Times, Ballotpedia, Census.
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