Competitive Districts

Latino Voters in Competitive Congressional Districts (November 2025)

2026 Elections

 

CD

LATINO % OF CVAP 

LATINO % OF REGISTERED

TOTAL LATINOS REGISTERED

PRESIDENTIAL MARGIN (‘20)

HOUSE MARGIN (‘22)

INCUMBENT

COMPETITIVENESS RATING
AK-AL 5.9% 6.4% 34336 Trump +13.1 GOP +2.4 Begich (R) Likely Republican
AZ-01 12.0% 9.9% 53632 Trump +3.1 GOP +3.8 Schweikert (R) Republican toss up
AZ-02 13.7% 12.4% 64369 Trump +15.0 GOP +9.0 Crane (R) Likely Republican
AZ-06 20.7% 17.6% 95271 Trump +0.7 GOP +2.5 Ciscomani (R) Republican toss up
CA-13 53.8%
(formerly: 53.7%)		 53.7%
(formerly: 53.8%)		 187925 Harris +0.5
(formerly: Trump +5.4)		 —
(formerly: DEM +0.08)		 Gray (D) Lean Democrat
CA-21 54.4%
(formerly: 56.1%)		 52.0%
(formerly: 53.1%)		 185837 Harris +6.0
(formerly: Harris +3.8)		 —
(formerly: DEM +5.2)		 Costa (D) Likely Democrat
CA-22 65.4%
(formerly: 63.7%)		 62.9%
(formerly: 62.6%)		 200226 Trump +1.8
(formerly: Trump +5.8)		 —
(formerly: GOP +6.8)		 Valadao (R) Republican toss up
CA-45 28.3%
(formerly: 24.5%)		 27.4%
(formerly: 23.4%)		 132260 Harris +3.9
(formerly: Harris +1.5)		 —
(formerly: DEM +0.2)		 Tran (D) Lean Democrat
CA-48 32.0%
(formerly: 23.9%)		 29.1%
(formerly: 22.0%)		 132525 Harris +3.4
(formerly: Trump +15.3)		 —
(formerly: GOP +18.6)		 Issa (R) Republican toss up
CO-03 20.8% 18.0% 92587 Trump +9.7 GOP +5.0 Hurd (R) Likely Republican
CO-05 14.5% 12.3% 59678 Trump +9.1 GOP +13.8 Crank (R) Likely Republican
CO-08 30.1% 28.5% 131460 Trump +1.8 GOP +0.7 Evans (R) Republican toss up
FL-07 18.5% 20.4% 117730 Trump +12.5 GOP +13.0 Mills (R) Likely Republican
FL-13 8.5% 9.6% 52970 Trump +11.9 GOP +9.6 Luna (R) Likely Republican
FL-23 19.3% 21.1% 110301 Harris +1.9 DEM +4.8 Moskowitz (D) Lean Democrat
IN-01 13.7% 12.7% 65968 Harris +0.4 DEM +8.5 Mrvan (D) Likely Democrat
IA-01 4.2% 3.8% 21360 Trump +8.5 GOP +0.2 Miller-Meeks (R) Republican toss up
IA-02 2.5% 2.3% 12730 Trump +10 GOP +15.5 Hinson (R) Likely Republican
IA-03 4.8% 4.5% 24410 Trump +4.4 GOP +3.8 Nunn (R) Republican toss up
ME-02 1.5% 1.5% 8124 Trump +9.1 DEM +0.6 Golden (R) Likely Republican
MI-04 5.9% 6.0% 36848 Trump +5.5 GOP +11.7 Huizenega (R) Likely Republican
MI-07 4.7% 4.2% 25428 Trump +1.3 GOP +3.7 Barrett (R) Republican toss up
MI-08 4.4% 4.1% 26405 Trump +2.0 DEM +6.7 Rivet (D) Lean Democrat
MI-10 2.3% 2.9% 17587 Trump +6.5 GOP +6.1 James (R) Lean Republican
MN-02 5.0% 4.1% 19483 Harris +5.8 DEM +13.5 Craig (R) Likely Democrat
MT-01 3.4% 2.4% 9058 Trump +11.6 GOP +8.0 Zinke (R) Likely Republican
NE-02 7.3% 6.4% 26075 Harris +4.6 GOP +1.8 Bacon (R) Lean Democrat
NV-01 25.2% 27.5% 150711 Harris +2.3 DEM +7.5 Titus (D) Likely Democrat
NV-03 17.4% 20.1% 114890 Trump +0.7 DEM +2.8 Lee (D) Lean Democrat
NV-04 25.2% 26.1% 145023 Harris +2.3 DEM +8.1 Horsford (D) Likely Democrat
NH-01 3.1% 2.9% 16106 Harris +2 DEM +8.0 Pappas (R) Likely Democrat
NH-02 3.3% 3.2% 17491 Harris +3.6 DEM +6.0 Goodlander (D) Likely Democrat
NJ-07 9.9% 9.4% 55708 Trump +1.2 GOP +5.4 Jr. (R) Republican toss up
NJ-09 34.8% 33.1% 150555 Trump +1.1 DEM +4.9 Pou (D) Lean Democrat
NM-02 53.7% 50.0% 193897 Trump +1.8 DEM +4.2 Vasquez (D) Lean Democrat
NY-03 11.8% 9.9% 52681 Trump +4.3 DEM +3.6 Suozzi (D) Lean Democrat
NY-04 16.5% 13.8% 75601 Harris +1.3 DEM +2.4 Gillen (D) Lean Democrat
NY-17 14.8% 12.1% 63530 Harris +0.6 GOP +6.3 Lawler (R) Republican toss up
NY-19 5.4% 4.2% 21823 Harris +1.8 DEM +2.2 Riley (D) Lean Democrat
NC-01 3.7% 3.9% 20139 Trump +3.1 DEM +1.7 Davis (D) Lean Republican
NC-11 3.7% 4.2% 22930 Trump +9.5 GOP +13.6 Edwards (R) Likely Republican
OH-01 2.7% 2.4% 12732 Harris +6.3 DEM +9.2 Landsman (D) Democrat toss up
OH-09 5.8% 4.7% 24827 Trump +6.7 DEM +0.6 Kaptur (D) Democrat toss up
OH-13 2.0% 1.9% 10354 – DEM +2.2 Sykes (D) Lean Democrat
OR-05 6.6% 6.7% 39488 Harris +8.5 DEM +2.7 Bynum (D) Likely Democrat
PA-01 4.6% 4.1% 22398 Harris +0.3 GOP +12.8 Fitzpatrick (R) Likely Republican
PA-07 15.0% 14.6% 74350 Trump +3.2 GOP +1.0 Mackenzie (R) Republican toss up
PA-08 9.6% 9.6% 46146 Trump +8.5 GOP +1.6 Bresnahan (R) Lean Republican
PA-10 7.1% 6.7% 33970 Trump +5.2 GOP +1.2 Perry (R) Republican toss up
TN-05 3.8%% 4.2% 21410 Trump +17.8 GOP +17.4 Ogles (R) Likely Republican
TX-15 74.5%
(formerly: 74.6%)		 75.2%
(formerly: 74.1%)		 308803 Trump +17.9
(formerly: Trump +17.9)		 GOP +13.2
(formerly: GOP +14.2)		 Cruz (R) Likely Republican
TX-28 86.7%
(formerly: 68.7%)		 87.8%
(formerly: 68.3%)		 354623 Trump +10.4
(formerly: Trump +7.3)		 DEM +7.8
(formerly: DEM +5.6)		 Cuellar (D) Lean Democrat
TX-34 71.9%
(formerly: 86.6%)		 70.8%
(formerly: 86.4%)		 305766 Trump +10.1
(formerly: Trump +4.4)		 GOP +8.6
(formerly: DEM +2.6)		 Gonzalez (D) Democrat toss up
TX-35 51.6%
(formerly: 45.9%)		 48.1%
(formerly: 42.6%)		 229175 Trump +10.4
(formerly: Harris +33.6)		 GOP +14.7
(formerly: DEM +34.8)		 Casar (R) Likely Republican
VA-01 3.8% 3.7% 22346 Trump +4.9 GOP +12.8 Wittman (R) Lean Republican
VA-02 6.1% 6.3% 34975 Trump +0.2 GOP +3.8 Kiggans (R) Republican toss up
VA-07 11.6% 11.8% 63958 Harris +2.9 DEM +2.6 Vindman (D) Lean Democrat
WA-03 6.9% 6.6% 36696 Trump +3.3 DEM +3.8 Perez (D) Democrat toss up
WI-01 8.2% 7.1% 42068 Trump +4.5 GOP +10.2 Steil (R) Likely Republican
WI-03 1.9% 1.6% 10073 Trump +7.4 GOP +2.8 Orden (R) Republican toss up

Key and Sources

CD = Congressional District
CVAP = Citizen Voting Age Population

BLUE Designated “Likely Democratic” RED Designated “Likely Republican”
LIGHT BLUE Designated “Leans Democratic” LIGHT RED Designated “Leans Republican”
PURPLE Designated “Toss Up”

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Cook Political Report, New York Times, Ballotpedia, Census.

Learn more

UnidosUS Hispanic Electorate Data Hub: 2023 Poll of the Latino Electorate

UnidosUS Hispanic Electorate Data Hub: Growth Rates

UnidosUS Hispanic Electorate Data Hub: Latino Voters in Competitive Congressional Districts

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