Competitive Districts
Latino Voters in Competitive Congressional Districts (As of January 2026)
2026 Elections
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CD |
LATINO % OF CVAP |
LATINO % OF REGISTERED |
TOTAL LATINOS REGISTERED |
PRESIDENTIAL MARGIN (‘24) |
HOUSE MARGIN (‘24) |
HOUSE MARGIN RAW VOTES (‘24) |
INCUMBENT |
COMPETITIVENESS RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | 5.9% | 6.4% | 34336 | Trump +13.1 | GOP +2.4 | GOP +7,876 | Begich (R) | Likely Republican |
| AZ-01 | 12.0% | 9.9% | 53632 | Trump +3.1 | GOP +3.8 | GOP +16,572 | Schweikert (R) OPEN |
Republican toss up |
| AZ-02 | 13.7% | 12.4% | 64369 | Trump +15.0 | GOP +9.0 |
GOP +36,450 |
Crane (R) | Likely Republican |
| AZ-06 | 20.7% | 17.6% | 95271 | Trump +0.7 | GOP +2.5 |
GOP +10,822 |
Ciscomani (R) | Republican toss up |
| CA-13 | 53.8% (formerly: 53.7%) |
53.7% (formerly: 53.8%) |
187925 | Harris +0.5 (formerly: Trump +5.4) |
— (formerly: DEM +0.08) |
— (formerly: DEM +187) |
Gray (D) | Lean Democrat |
| CA-21 | 54.4% (formerly: 56.1%) |
52.0% (formerly: 53.1%) |
185837 | Harris +6.0 (formerly: Harris +3.8) |
— (formerly: DEM +5.2) |
— (formerly: DEM +10,056) |
Costa (D) | Likely Democrat |
| CA-22 | 65.4% (formerly: 63.7%) |
62.9% (formerly: 62.6%) |
200226 | Trump +1.8 (formerly: Trump +5.8) |
— (formerly: GOP +6.8) |
— (formerly: GOP +11,461) |
Valadao (R) | Republican toss up |
| CA-45 | 28.3% (formerly: 24.5%) |
27.4% (formerly: 23.4%) |
132260 | Harris +3.9 (formerly: Harris +1.5) |
— (formerly: DEM +0.2) |
— (formerly: DEM +653) |
Tran (D) | Lean Democrat |
| CA-48 | 32.0% (formerly: 23.9%) |
29.1% (formerly: 22.0%) |
132525 | Harris +3.4 (formerly: Trump +15.3) |
— (formerly: GOP +18.6) |
— (formerly: GOP +66,960) |
Issa (R) | Republican toss up |
| CO-03 | 20.8% | 18.0% | 92587 | Trump +9.7 | GOP +5.0 |
GOP +19,804 |
Hurd (R) | Likely Republican |
| CO-05 | 14.5% | 12.3% | 59678 | Trump +9.1 | GOP +13.8 |
GOP +49,952 |
Crank (R) | Likely Republican |
| CO-08 | 30.1% | 28.5% | 131460 | Trump +1.8 | GOP +0.7 |
GOP +2,449 |
Evans (R) | Republican toss up |
| FL-07 | 18.5% | 20.4% | 117730 | Trump +12.5 | GOP +13.0 |
GOP +44,020 |
Mills (R) | Likely Republican |
| FL-13 | 8.5% | 9.6% | 52970 | Trump +11.9 | GOP +9.6 |
GOP +39,706 |
Luna (R) | Likely Republican |
| FL-23 | 19.3% | 21.1% | 110301 | Harris +1.9 | DEM +4.8 |
DEM +18,305 |
Moskowitz (D) | Lean Democrat |
| IN-01 | 13.7% | 12.7% | 65968 | Harris +0.4 | DEM +8.5 | DEM +27,411 | Mrvan (D) | Likely Democrat |
| IA-01 | 4.2% | 3.8% | 21360 | Trump +8.5 | GOP +0.2 |
GOP +799 |
Miller-Meeks (R) | Republican toss up |
| IA-02 | 2.5% | 2.3% | 12730 | Trump +10 | GOP +15.5 |
GOP +63,600 |
Hinson (R) OPEN |
Likely Republican |
| IA-03 | 4.8% | 4.5% | 24410 | Trump +4.4 | GOP +3.8 |
GOP +15,784 |
Nunn (R) | Republican toss up |
| ME-02 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 8124 | Trump +9.1 | DEM +0.6 |
DEM +2,706 |
Golden (R) OPEN |
Likely Republican |
| MI-04 | 5.9% | 6.0% | 36848 | Trump +5.5 | GOP +11.7 |
GOP +49,848 |
Huizenega (R) | Likely Republican |
| MI-07 | 4.7% | 4.2% | 25428 | Trump +1.3 | GOP +3.7 |
GOP +16,763 |
Barrett (R) | Republican toss up |
| MI-08 | 4.4% | 4.1% | 26405 | Trump +2.0 | DEM +6.7 |
DEM +28,173 |
Rivet (D) | Lean Democrat |
| MI-10 | 2.3% | 2.9% | 17587 | Trump +6.5 | GOP +6.1 |
GOP +26,074 |
James (R) | Lean Republican |
| MN-02 | 5.0% | 4.1% | 19483 | Harris +5.8 | DEM +13.5 |
DEM +56,130 |
Craig (R) | Likely Democrat |
| MT-01 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 9058 | Trump +11.6 | GOP +8.0 |
GOP +24,746 |
Zinke (R) | Likely Republican |
| NE-02 | 7.3% | 6.4% | 26075 | Harris +4.6 | GOP +1.8 |
GOP +5,829 |
Bacon (R) | Lean Democrat |
| NV-01 | 25.2% | 27.5% | 150711 | Harris +2.3 | DEM +7.5 |
DEM +24,235 |
Titus (D) | Likely Democrat |
| NV-03 | 17.4% | 20.1% | 114890 | Trump +0.7 | DEM +2.8 |
DEM +10,220 |
Lee (D) | Lean Democrat |
| NV-04 | 25.2% | 26.1% | 145023 | Harris +2.3 | DEM +8.1 |
DEM +26,865 |
Horsford (D) | Likely Democrat |
| NH-01 | 3.1% | 2.9% | 16106 | Harris +2 | DEM +8.0 |
DEM +32,641 |
Pappas (R) OPEN |
Likely Democrat |
| NH-02 | 3.3% | 3.2% | 17491 | Harris +3.6 | DEM +6.0 |
DEM +23,831 |
Goodlander (D) | Likely Democrat |
| NJ-07 | 9.9% | 9.4% | 55708 | Trump +1.2 | GOP +5.4 |
GOP +23,306 |
Jr. (R) | Republican toss up |
| NJ-09 | 34.8% | 33.1% | 150555 | Trump +1.1 | DEM +4.9 |
DEM +12,575 |
Pou (D) | Lean Democrat |
| NM-02 | 53.7% | 50.0% | 193897 | Trump +1.8 | DEM +4.2 |
DEM +11,032 |
Vasquez (D) | Lean Democrat |
| NY-03 | 11.8% | 9.9% | 52681 | Trump +4.3 | DEM +3.6 |
DEM +12,957 |
Suozzi (D) | Lean Democrat |
| NY-04 | 16.5% | 13.8% | 75601 | Harris +1.3 | DEM +2.4 |
DEM +8,625 |
Gillen (D) | Lean Democrat |
| NY-17 | 14.8% | 12.1% | 63530 | Harris +0.6 | GOP +6.3 |
GOP +23,946 |
Lawler (R) | Republican toss up |
| NY-19 | 5.4% | 4.2% | 21823 | Harris +1.8 | DEM +2.2 |
DEM +8,357 |
Riley (D) | Lean Democrat |
| NC-01 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 20139 | Trump +3.1 | DEM +1.7 |
DEM +6,307 |
Davis (D) | Lean Republican |
| NC-11 | 3.7% | 4.2% | 22930 | Trump +9.5 | GOP +13.6 |
GOP +58,569 |
Edwards (R) | Likely Republican |
| OH-01 | 2.7% | 2.4% | 12732 | Harris +6.3 | DEM +9.2 |
DEM +35,923 |
Landsman (D) | Democrat toss up |
| OH-09 | 5.8% | 4.7% | 24827 | Trump +6.7 | DEM +0.6 |
DEM +2,382 |
Kaptur (D) | Democrat toss up |
| OH-13 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 10354 | – | DEM +2.2 |
DEM +8,542 |
Sykes (D) | Lean Democrat |
| OR-05 | 6.6% | 6.7% | 39488 | Harris +8.5 | DEM +2.7 |
DEM +10,945 |
Bynum (D) | Likely Democrat |
| PA-01 | 4.6% | 4.1% | 22398 | Harris +0.3 | GOP +12.8 |
GOP +59,348 |
Fitzpatrick (R) | Likely Republican |
| PA-07 | 15.0% | 14.6% | 74350 | Trump +3.2 | GOP +1.0 |
GOP +4,062 |
Mackenzie (R) | Republican toss up |
| PA-08 | 9.6% | 9.6% | 46146 | Trump +8.5 | GOP +1.6 |
GOP +6,252 |
Bresnahan (R) | Lean Republican |
| PA-10 | 7.1% | 6.7% | 33970 | Trump +5.2 | GOP +1.2 |
GOP +5,133 |
Perry (R) | Republican toss up |
| TN-05 | 3.8%% | 4.2% | 21410 | Trump +17.8 | GOP +17.4 |
GOP +62,688 |
Ogles (R) | Likely Republican |
| TX-15 | 74.5% (formerly: 74.6%) |
75.2% (formerly: 74.1%) |
308803 | Trump +17.9 (formerly: Trump +17.9) |
GOP +13.2 (formerly: GOP +14.2) |
GOP +29,397 |
Cruz (R) | Likely Republican |
| TX-28 | 86.7% (formerly: 68.7%) |
87.8% (formerly: 68.3%) |
354623 | Trump +10.4 (formerly: Trump +7.3) |
DEM +7.8 (formerly: DEM +5.6) |
DEM +14,653 |
Cuellar (D) | Lean Democrat |
| TX-34 | 71.9% (formerly: 86.6%) |
70.8% (formerly: 86.4%) |
305766 | Trump +10.1 (formerly: Trump +4.4) |
GOP +8.6 (formerly: DEM +2.6) |
GOP +20,435 |
Gonzalez (D) | Democrat toss up |
| TX-35 | 51.6% (formerly: 45.9%) |
48.1% (formerly: 42.6%) |
229175 | Trump +10.4 (formerly: Harris +33.6) |
GOP +14.7 (formerly: DEM +34.8) |
GOP +38,636 |
Casar (R) OPEN |
Likely Republican |
| VA-01 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 22346 | Trump +4.9 | GOP +12.8 |
GOP +61,212 |
Wittman (R) | Lean Republican |
| VA-02 | 6.1% | 6.3% | 34975 | Trump +0.2 | GOP +3.8 |
GOP +15,702 |
Kiggans (R) | Republican toss up |
| VA-07 | 11.6% | 11.8% | 63958 | Harris +2.9 | DEM +2.6 |
DEM +10,489 |
Vindman (D) | Lean Democrat |
| WA-03 | 6.9% | 6.6% | 36696 | Trump +3.3 | DEM +3.8 |
DEM +16,123 |
Perez (D) | Democrat toss up |
| WI-01 | 8.2% | 7.1% | 42068 | Trump +4.5 | GOP +10.2 |
GOP +40,113 |
Steil (R) | Likely Republican |
| WI-03 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 10073 | Trump +7.4 | GOP +2.8 |
GOP +11,256 |
Orden (R) | Republican toss up |
Key and Sources
CD = Congressional District
CVAP = Citizen Voting Age Population
| BLUE | Designated “Likely Democratic” | RED | Designated “Likely Republican” | |
| LIGHT BLUE | Designated “Leans Democratic” | LIGHT RED | Designated “Leans Republican” | |
| PURPLE | Designated “Toss Up” |
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; The Downballot 2024 Election Results, CA+TX: Dave’s Redistricting (DRA 2020), New York Times Election Results, TX: Dave’s Redistricting (DRA 2020); Cook Political Report, U.S. Census Bureau; 2023 ACS, TX: District Population Analysis Plan C2333, CA: California Congress AB 604, Redistricting Data Hub Voter File Data: 2024 L2 Voter File General Election Turnout Statistics.
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