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By the Numbers: Latinos in the Time of Coronavirus

About the Dashboard
Latino workers and families have been disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic across nearly every aspect of their lives, which will have repercussions for years to come. To better understand the pandemic’s impact on Latino communities, UnidosUS presents “By the Numbers: Latinos in the Time of Coronavirus,” an interactive, user-friendly dashboard that provides the latest data on the effects of COVID-19 across a range of issues. We hope this data tool will help users better understand issues facing Latino communities in the time of COVID-19.

The dashboard provides trends nationally and in six key states (Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, Texas, and Colorado). Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s experimental Household Pulse Survey, the dashboard displays bi-weekly data with race/ethnicity comparisons for the following indicators:

• Loss of Employment Income
• Health Insurance Coverage (Overall/Public/Private)
• Food Insufficiency
• Mental Health (Anxiety)
• Housing (Missed Rent or Mortgage Payments)
• Education (Classes Cancelled or Moved to Distance Learning)
• Access to Technology for Children’s Education (Computers or Internet)

To better contextualize these trends, we include key dates in the timeline, in particular:

• April 24, 2020: The United States surpasses 50,000 COVID-19 related deaths
• May 28, 2020: The United States surpasses 100,000 COVID-19 related deaths
• July 31, 2020: The economic relief measures in the CARES Act expire (supplemental unemployment insurance, rental assistance, etc.)
• November 18, 2020: The United States surpasses 250,000 COVID-19 related deaths
• February 22, 2021: The United States surpasses 500,000 COVID-19 related deaths

Additionally, the dashboard provides pandemic-related case and mortality projections to the end of 2021 for six states. These projections will be updated periodically as new data become available. For a description of high, middle, and low projection scenarios, see the Projection Methods tab above.

Using the Dashboard
It is our hope that the data and graphs presented here will be used widely by advocates, journalists, policymakers, researchers, and others. Both the graphs and raw data can be downloaded in different formats for optimal use.

Click on the “Latest Trends” drop-down menu above to explore recent social and economic trends from the Household Pulse Survey. All graphs can be exported, and data can also be downloaded in Excel and PDF formats. We strongly recommend viewing the dashboard in full-screen format on a desktop computer monitor or laptop, rather than a mobile device.

Please note that the Household Pulse Data have been released in phases. Data collection for Phase 1 began on April 23, 2020 and ended on July 21, 2020; data collection for Phase 2 began on August 19, 2020 and ended on October 26, 2020; data collection for Phase 3 started on October 28, 2020 and ended on March 29, 2021; and data collection for Phase 3.1 started on April 14, 2021. The dashboard will be updated as new data become available.

For more information about specific indicators from the Household Pulse Survey, please click on the “Notes and Definitions” link in the “Latest Trends” menu above.

To view the COVID-19 projection methods and data, click on the “COVID-19 Projections” drop-down menu above.

Credits
This dashboard was developed by staff at the Population Reference Bureau (PRB). Matthew Martinez (Research Associate, PRB) developed the data visualizations. Lillian Kilduff (Research Analyst, PRB) and Mark Mather (Associate Vice President, PRB) compiled the data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey. Beth Jarosz (Senior Research Associate, PRB) developed the projections of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Support was provided by Patricia Foxen (Deputy Director of Research) and Emily Ruskin (Senior Immigration Policy Analyst) at UnidosUS.

Recommended Citation
PRB analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for UnidosUS, “By the Numbers: Latinos in the Time of Coronavirus.”

Learn More About the Latino Community in the Time of Coronavirus

• Report: The Latino Community in the Time of Coronavirus: The Case for a Broad and Inclusive Government Response
• Conversation: UnidosUS talks to Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and Representative Joaquin Castro on the Impact of COVID-19 on Latinos
• Analysis: The Latino Community in the Time of Coronavirus: Still Waiting for a Government Response
• Brief: Struggling to Stay Home: Latino Renters in the COVID-19 Pandemic
• Townhall: UnidosUS in Conversation with Representative Jesús G. “Chuy” García and UnidosUS Affiliate MEDA, moderated by the creators of Netflix’s “Gentefied”
• More virtual events in Spanish and English
• COVID-19 resources in Spanish and English

Notes and Definitions

Notes and Definitions

Data on recent social and economic trends are based on PRB’s analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 Household Pulse Survey Public Use Files.

Household Pulse Survey data were available starting in the spring of 2020, but there was a gap in data collection between July 21 and August 19. Denominators for all Household Pulse Survey indicators in the dashboard exclude respondents who did not provide valid responses.

These estimates are subject to both sampling and nonsampling error. Data are presented as two-week averages (weeks 1-2, weeks 3-4, etc.) to reduce sampling error, which may be substantial for certain states and population subgroups.

The Census Bureau is fielding the Household Pulse Survey as a part of the agency’s Experimental Data Series; as such, these data may not meet some of the Census Bureau’s statistical quality standards. The Household Pulse Survey only includes respondents who are willing and able to respond to an online survey and may yield biased estimates, particularly for items related to computer and internet access.

Data are presented for the nation and six states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. These states represent the largest and fastest growing Hispanic populations in the United States. More than half of the nation’s Latino population lives in California, Texas and Florida alone.

State-level estimates are shown for the Hispanic/Latino, non-Hispanic White, and total population, while national estimates are shown for the total population and five racial/ethnic groups:

• Hispanic/Latino
• Non-Hispanic White (alone)
• Non-Hispanic Black (alone)
• Non-Hispanic Asian (alone)
• Non-Hispanic Other Race (alone) or Two or More Races

The terms “Hispanic” and “Latino” are used interchangeably by the Census Bureau and in this data tool to refer to persons of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central and South American, Dominican, Spanish, and other Hispanic descent; they may be of any race. This data tool may also refer to this population as “Latinx” to represent the diversity of gender identities and expressions that are present in the community.

Variable Definitions

• Adults with Employment Income Loss: The share of adults ages 18 and older who reported that they or someone in their household had experienced a loss of employment income since March 13, 2020.


• Households That Do Not Have Enough Food to Eat: The share of adults ages 18 and older who reported that their household sometimes or often did not have enough food to eat in the past seven days.


• Households with Children That Do Not Have Enough Food to Eat: The share of adults ages 18 and older in households with children under age 18 who reported that their household sometimes or often did not have enough food to eat in the past seven days.


• Adults Who Lack Health Insurance: The share of adults ages 18 to 64 who reported that they currently do not have health insurance. Adults were classified as uninsured if they did not report any private health insurance coverage or public health plan coverage at the time of the interview. Following Census Bureau and CDC guidelines, adults were also classified as uninsured if they had only Indian Health Service coverage.


• Adults with Public Health Insurance Coverage: The share of adults ages 18 to 64 who reported that they had 1) Medicare, 2) Medicaid, or 3) VA health care. (Note: The private and public categories are not mutually exclusive; adults can be enrolled in both.)


• Adults with Private Health Insurance Coverage: The share of adults ages 18 to 64 who reported that they had insurance through 1) a current or former employer or union; 2) insurance purchased directly from an insurance company, including marketplace coverage; or 3) TRICARE or other military health care. (Note: The private and public categories are not mutually exclusive; adults can be enrolled in both.)


• Households with Children Who Had Class Cancelled: The share of adults ages 18 and older living in households with at least one child attending public or private school (kindergarten through 12th grade) who had classes cancelled because of COVID-19.


• Households with Children Whose Classes Moved to an Online Format: The share of adults ages 18 and older living in households with at least one child attending public or private school (K-12) whose classes were moved to a distance-learning format using online resources, either self-paced or in real time, because of COVID-19.


• Households without a Computer Available to Children for Educational Purposes: The share of adults ages 18 and older living in households with at least one child attending public or private school (K-12) in which a computer or digital device is rarely or never available to children for educational purposes.


• Households without Internet Available to Children for Educational Purposes: The share of adults ages 18 and older living in households with at least one child attending public or private school (K-12) in which internet is rarely or never available to children for educational purposes. (Note: The Household Pulse Survey does not distinguish between broadband and other kinds of internet access.)


• Adults in Households That Missed Last Month’s Mortgage Payment: The share of adults ages 18 and older living in owner-occupied households that missed the previous month’s mortgage payment. (Note: Data are restricted to owner-occupied households that have a monthly mortgage payment and exclude households with mortgage payments that were deferred. Data for July 21 and earlier periods reflect households that did not pay last month’s mortgage on time, while data for August 19 and later periods reflect households that are not “currently caught up on mortgage payments.”)


• Adults in Households That Missed Last Month’s Rent Payment: The share of adults ages 18 and older living in renter-occupied households that missed the previous month’s rent payment. (Note: Data are restricted to renter-occupied households that have a monthly rent payment and exclude households with rent payments that were deferred. Data for July 21 and earlier periods reflect households that did not pay last month’s rent on time, while data for August 19 and later periods reflect households that are not “currently caught up on rent payments.”)


• Adults Who Felt Anxious for More Than Half of the Days in the Past Week: The share of adults ages 18 and older who reported that they felt nervous, anxious or on edge for more than half of the days or nearly every day in the past seven days.

Projection Methods

Methods Used to Project COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

Overview
Projections are based on the Population Reference Bureau (PRB)’s analysis of data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other sources. To project the potential number of COVID-19 cases and deaths that could occur in coming months, we first analyzed trends in confirmed cases and deaths for the population as a whole, as well as for the Hispanic/Latino population.

Starting with data available through March 31, 2021, we applied three scenarios:

• Low: Masking and Other Measures Limit Spread
  This scenario assumes a relatively low rate of community spread.
• Middle: Mixed Success at Limiting Spread
  This scenario is the midpoint between the low and high scenarios.
• High: Few Preventive Measures, Widespread Transmission
  This scenario assumes few, or ineffective, preventive measures and rapid growth in the number of new cases, with spread exacerbated by new—more highly contagious—coronavirus variants.

All scenarios assume that vaccine roll-out is successful and transmission rates fall in August 2021.

Each of these scenarios results in a projected total number of COVID-19 cases for each state. We then use the projected total number of cases to estimate the total number of COVID-19 deaths, by assuming that a certain share of newly infected people succumb to the disease. This rate—deaths as a proportion of new cases—is based on data available for August 2020 through March 2021.

Next, we calculated the projected number of Hispanic/Latino cases and deaths as a share of the total number of cases and deaths in each state. The share is based on data available for August 2020 through March 2021.

Projections are provided for six states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. These states represent the largest and fastest growing Hispanic populations in the United States. More than half of the nation’s Latino population lives in California, Texas and Florida alone.

Data Sources
Input data sources include the following:

• U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• The COVID Tracking Project
• Kaiser Family Foundation
• State departments of health for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Texas

Detailed Methods
Starting with data available through March 31, 2021, we apply a series of growth rates (per month, per state) over the projection period. The scenarios are as follows:

• Low: Masking and Other Measures Limit Spread
  This scenario assumes April cases are at the low end of ensemble model projections from CDC, and thereafter there is a relatively low rate of community spread. Once a state reaches 6% of the population with a positive case, the growth rate drops to 2% per month. (See description below.)


• Middle: Mixed Success at Limiting Spread
  This scenario shows a rate of growth that is the midpoint between the low and high scenarios.


• High: Few Preventive Measures, Widespread Transmission
  This scenario assumes few, or ineffective, preventive measures and widespread community transmission resulting, at least in part, from the spread of new coronavirus variants. Once a state reaches 8.3% of the population with a positive case, the growth rate drops to 3% per month.

From the existing case level, we use recent growth rates in cases to project the change in cases expected in the next month. We then add these new cases to the prior-month total. To project the first month of growth in number of cases, we benchmark state growth rates to the “ensemble model” four-week projection from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for the week ending April 24, 2021. The low scenario incorporates the growth in cases from CDC’s 25th percentile ensemble projection. The middle scenario incorporates the growth in cases from CDC’s ensemble point projection. The high scenario incorporates growth in cases from the 75th percentile ensemble projection.

From April 2021 to the end of the projection horizon, we show the rate of growth in new cases tapering off, with monthly increases of up to 8% until a state begins to approach “herd immunity,” at which point growth rates decrease to 0.5% per month in the low scenario and 3% in the high scenario. Herd immunity also varies by scenario. In the low scenario, the threshold is 60% of the population infected and recovered, and in the high scenario the threshold is 83%.¹ Because the data available reflect the number of confirmed cases, rather than total number of infections, we must make an assumption about the level of under-reporting of cases relative to infections. While the exact under-reporting level is unknown, and likely varies by location, this model assumes that about 1 in 10 infections is recorded as a confirmed case—or that there are about 10 times more infections than there are confirmed cases. Thus, the model assumes “herd immunity” when the case/population thresholds are 6% and 8.3%, for the low and high scenarios, respectively.²

Each of these scenarios results in a projected total number of COVID-19 cases for each state. The projected total number of cases then influences the projected total number of COVID-19 deaths, as a share of newly infected people succumb to the disease.

From Projected Total Cases to Projected Deaths
To project the number of deaths, we begin with the number of new cases and apply a ratio based on the historical number of deaths relative to new cases. Because these projections are based on monthly data, and the population at risk of death may span cases from both the current month and the prior month, we apply the transition rate to half of the new cases from the prior month and half of the new cases from the current month to develop an estimate of deaths in a given month.³ Although the transition rates have declined slightly since the pandemic began, the rates have started to stabilize in recent months. Thus, we hold the transition rates constant at recent levels through the projection period. The transition rates are constant across all three projection scenarios.

Projecting COVID-19 Cases and Deaths for the Hispanic/Latino Population
Historical data on cases and deaths in the Hispanic/Latino population are from The COVID Racial Data Tracker from the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic. A substantial share of cases reported from Texas are missing racial/ethnic data. Historical Hispanic/Latino cases in Texas are estimated using total cases and the Hispanic/Latino share of cases with known race/ethnicity.

For each state and scenario, the number of projected Hispanic/Latino cases and deaths is a constant share of the total number of cases and deaths. The shares are calculated based on an average of data from recent months, with data drawn from two key sources: the COVID Tracking Project (which reports cases and deaths with known race/ethnicity) and the Kaiser Family Foundation cases by race/ethnicity and deaths by race/ethnicity (which reports shares by race/ethnicity among cases/deaths for which race/ethnicity is known). The Hispanic/Latino share is held constant across all three projection scenarios.

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1. The herd immunity thresholds are based on the herd immunity formula 1-1/R₀. While data are still limited, and R₀ is not known exactly, there is increasing evidence that the R₀ for the SARS-CoV-2 virus ranges from 2.5-4.0, and that masking reduces R₀ by about 70% to 2.1. For additional information, see John Drake, “Face Masks Could Prevent 50 Million Covid-19 Cases In The US,” Forbes, October 9, 2020, https://bit.ly/3nPnVCv; and Arnaud Fontanet and Simon Cauchemez, “COVID-19 Herd Immunity: Where Are We?” Nature Reviews Immunology, September 2020, https://go.nature.com/318dxMf.

2. Considering the low rate of testing in the United States, there is evidence that COVID-19 infections are under-reported by a factor of about 10. Thus, our threshold for nearly population-wide infection is approximately 10% of the population with a confirmed case.

3. Several analyses suggest that median time from symptom onset to death is in the two-week range. For additional information, see H. Lau et al., “Evaluating the Massive Underreporting and Undertesting of COVID-19 cases in Multiple Global Epicenters,” Pulmonology, June 2020, https://bit.ly/3iZCWxN; and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios,” September 2020, https://bit.ly/2IsAIdL.

Adults with Employment Income Loss

The share of adults ages 18 and older who reported that they or someone in their household had experienced a loss of employment income since March 13, 2020.

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Households That Do Not Have Enough Food to Eat

The share of adults ages 18 and older who reported that their household sometimes or often did not have enough food to eat in the past seven days.

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Households with Children That Do Not Have Enough Food to Eat

The share of adults ages 18 and older in households with children under age 18 who reported that their household sometimes or often did not have enough food to eat in the past seven days.

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Adults Who Lack Health Insurance

The share of adults ages 18 to 64 who reported that they currently do not have health insurance. Adults were classified as uninsured if they did not report any private health insurance coverage or public health plan coverage at the time of the interview. Following Census Bureau and CDC guidelines, adults were also classified as uninsured if they had only Indian Health Service coverage.

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Adults with Private Health Insurance Coverage

The share of adults ages 18 to 64 who reported that they had insurance through 1) a current or former employer or union; 2) insurance purchased directly from an insurance company, including marketplace coverage; or 3) TRICARE or other military health care. (Note: The private and public categories are not mutually exclusive; adults can be enrolled in both.)

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Adults with Public Health Insurance Coverage

The share of adults ages 18 to 64 who reported that they had 1) Medicare, 2) Medicaid, or 3) VA health care. (Note: The private and public categories are not mutually exclusive; adults can be enrolled in both.)

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Households with Children Who Had Class Cancelled

The share of adults ages 18 and older living in households with at least one child attending public or private school (kindergarten through 12th grade) who had classes cancelled because of COVID-19.

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Households with Children Whose Classes Moved to an Online Format

The share of adults ages 18 and older living in households with at least one child attending public or private school (K-12) whose classes were moved to a distance-learning format using online resources, either self-paced or in real time, because of COVID-19.

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Households without a Computer Available to Children for Educational Purposes

The share of adults ages 18 and older living in households with at least one child attending public or private school (K-12) in which a computer or digital device is rarely or never available to children for educational purposes.

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Households without Internet Available to Children for Educational Purposes

The share of adults ages 18 and older living in households with at least one child attending public or private school (K-12) in which internet is rarely or never available to children for educational purposes. (Note: The Household Pulse Survey does not distinguish between broadband and other kinds of internet access.)

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Adults in Households That Missed Last Month’s Mortgage

The share of adults ages 18 and older living in owner-occupied households that missed the previous month’s mortgage payment. (Note: Data are restricted to owner-occupied households that have a monthly mortgage payment and exclude households with mortgage payments that were deferred. Data for July 21 and earlier periods reflect households that did not pay last month’s mortgage on time, while data for August 19 and later periods reflect households that are not “currently caught up on mortgage payments.”)

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Adults in Households That Missed Last Month’s Rent Payment

The share of adults ages 18 and older living in renter-occupied households that missed the previous month’s rent payment. (Note: Data are restricted to renter-occupied households that have a monthly rent payment and exclude households with rent payments that were deferred. Data for July 21 and earlier periods reflect households that did not pay last month’s rent on time, while data for August 19 and later periods reflect households that are not “currently caught up on rent payments.”)

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.

Adults Who Felt Anxious for More Than Half of the Days in the Past Week

The share of adults ages 18 and older who reported that they felt nervous, anxious or on edge for more than half of the days or nearly every day in the past seven days.

For more information about these data, please see Notes and Definitions.